I'm devising a formula to determine what the actual release date is on these patches, drivers, and service packs from various sources.
It seems that everything from LiveWare 3.0 ("Mid-June"), Creative DXR3 final ("Real Soon Now"), IE 5.5 ("Could be Wednesday"), and now Win2k SP-1 ("Should be available Monday") never arrive when predicted. How many average days are these things delayed beyond the expected date? Start with the "Base Fudge Factor", or BFF... This depends on how specific the forecast was. If it was a specific day, adding about 2 days will usually do the trick. "Mid-<fill in some month>"? Add a whole month to that. "Sometime Next Week"? Figure on the week after that. Now for the company specific factor.... You must add an additional factor for the company making the claim ("Added Company Fudge Factor", or ACFF), in addition to the BFF.... Microsoft? Usually the BFF works. Creative Labs? Add an extra 50% to theirs.
So the formula is: BFF + ACFF = Actual Expected Release date.
This service pack is from Microsoft, and had an expected specific date of... TODAY, so adding the two days for BFF with nothing extra for ACFF? I'm guessing we'll probably see it sometime Wednesday. Let's see if my hypothesis holds up....